The election conundrum

Elections, this time Provincial Council polls, have returned into the public focus after the 20th Amendment was approved by the Cabinet, ostensibly attempting to postpone the elections till 2019. The decision, which has now been opposed by the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the Joint Opposition, has thrown up fresh discourse on elections and the provincial council system as a whole. 

By October the current East, North Central and Sabaragamuwa Provincial Councils would have completed their terms. This would mean that provincial council elections would have to be held in these three regions and, under the staggered basis introduced by former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, the remaining provincial councils would have to be re-elected parallel to the local government elections in 2018 as well. 

The 20th Amendment sought to vest the powers of the lapsed provincial councils with Parliament and in 2019 hold the elections in one day, as was previously done. Such a measure, supporters of the 20th Amendment argue, will save precious public money, provide an even playing field to all parties and reduce election violations. 

However, shortly after approving the 20th Amendment in Cabinet, the SLFP has decided to take a different route, calling for the provincial council elections to be held early and if necessary bringing forward the 2019 dates to facilitate the polls being held on the same day. 

The Joint Opposition, which has strongly lobbied for polls to show its prowess, has also condemned attempts to postpone the elections with Rajapaksa alluding to the move as the latest attempt by the Government to infringe on the democratic rights of the people. With both factions of the SLFP on the same page for once, the UNP may have to enter the foray disregarding its own reservations. 

Observers have long argued that the provincial council system in Sri Lanka is flawed as it does not work for the benefit of the people. Unlike in India where Chief Ministers of different states compete to attract investment and improve the living standards of the people, the Sri Lankan system relies heavily on the Central Government for development. Indeed, in many instances gross incompetence and corruption is seen in the function of the provincial councils and despite existing for decades has failed to serve the people. 

Sri Lanka is also in the middle of a severe but essential fiscal consolidation process as well as weather-related challenges such as an ongoing drought that is placing economic pressure on the Government. In fact the Central Bank in its latest update has said Sri Lanka may only grow by 4.5% in 2017, barely managing to exceed the 4.4% recorded in 2016. Having had to increase taxes to improve public revenue, the Government, especially the UNP, has also incurred the displeasure of the public. But they have managed to put the economy in a better position and are attempting to push forward much-needed reforms, including the restructuring of loss-making state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that are politically difficult to do when facing elections. 

Pushing forward with elections at this point would put them in a very challenging position and possibly endanger the fiscal consolidation process as politicians attempt to placate voters with handouts. With so many issues on multiple fronts, the fate of the provincial councils could have a bigger impact than anyone bargained for.