Will he, won’t he?

President Maithripala Sirisena has hit the headlines again for telling Cabinet members that he will not contest for a second term. During a chat after the Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, the President had broached the subject and said that he would not throw his hat in the ring and had even gone so far as to tell the United National Front (UNF) coalition members that if they presented an election manifesto to his liking, he might even go so far as to support it. But the biggest point of all in the conversation was that he had reportedly said he would not back Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa. 

The listeners, however, were quite sceptical of what was said as during his recent visit to India President Sirisena was reported to have told Indian journalists that he was yet to make up his mind about running for president. In addition the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) has said it had not been informed of any such decision by the President and was still continuing talks with the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) to form a coalition to contest the upcoming election. The talks, which have already done several rounds, are expected to continue, with no top rung members from either side saying anything to the contrary. 

Political analysts believe it is still possible that President Sirisena will make a last ditch effort to have a second term. In fact this has been feared by the SLPP for months, with Party Chairman Prof. G.L. Peiris even filing a Right to Information request from the Presidential Secretariat on whether the President is considering asking for a second clarification from the Supreme Court on the length of his term. 

Clearly, the SLPP does not want Sirisena to extend his term as it would further delay the chance for Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa to be the power behind the throne as it were, since he cannot contest for a third term. The SLPP even threatened to end ongoing talks with the SLFP if there was any danger of Sirisena attempting to extend his term. Therefore, Sirisena’s comments, coming on top of his statements in India that were widely reported by Indian media, could reassure them that such a step is becoming increasingly unlikely. 

This could mean that the presidential race boils down to two candidates – one from the United National Party (UNP) and another backed by the Rajapaksa camp. President Sirisena offering to consider a UNF manifesto could be seen as an olive branch of sorts and a welcome break from the frostiness between the President and the Prime Minister that even the Easter Sunday attacks could not completely thaw. President Sirisena had reportedly also told the UNF to consider coming to the next election with a “new face” in a barely-disguised dig at Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. 

Even with just months to go before his term ends, it is improbable that President Sirisena will step aside from Government functions as he has repeatedly said that even if he does not contest for a second term, he will remain engaged in politics. As Executive President and Leader of the SLFP, he will still have an impact on how the presidential race evolves in the next six months.