A date with destiny?

President Maithripala Sirisena’s statement to Indian media that presidential elections have been scheduled for 7 December has refocused attention on presidential elections. Political speculation is once again swirling to understand what this could mean to different key figures readying for the fray. 

If elections have indeed been scheduled for 7 December, it could mean that President Sirisena may have given up on going before the Supreme Court seeking to extend his term. This has been feared by the Sri Lanka Podujana Party (SLPP) backed by Opposition Leader and former President Mahinda Rajapkasa for some time, with Party Chairman Prof. G.L. Peiris even filing a Right to Information request from the Presidential Secretariat on whether such a request for legal counsel has already been made. This came after Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekera told reporters that a second clarification on the President’s term could be made after the new Chief Justice is appointed. 

Clearly the SLPP does not want Sirisena to extend his term as it would further delay the chance for Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa to be the power behind the throne as it were, as he cannot contest for a third term. The SLPP even threatened to end ongoing talks with the SLFP to form a coalition to contest the upcoming elections if there was any danger of Sirisena attempting to extend his term. Therefore, Sirisena’s comments, widely reported by Indian media, could reassure them that such a step is becoming increasingly unlikely. 

But it also means that the attention shifts even more microscopically to every action taken by Rajapaksa. Even though former Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa has declared his intention of throwing his hat in the ring, there has so far been resounding silence from the SLPP on whether he would be their candidate. The younger Rajapaksa’s chances of winning a presidential election are good but it is questionable whether he will be able to hold Parliament without the support of a party. There has been little indication that another candidate will emerge from the Rajapaksa camp and speculation will only intensify in the coming months. 

As far as the United National Party (UNP) is concerned there does not appear to be any serious internal party moves to push for a candidate other than Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. Though there has been much speculation, largely on social media, that business tycoon Dhammika Perera could be an option, it does not hold much water given Wickremesinghe’s hold over the party. The Prime Minister at 70 may be seeing this as his last chance to contest a presidential election and will not lightly hand over that opportunity to any other person. Therefore as things stand it looks as though the UNP candidate will be the same as its Leader.

In any event, reports indicate that the Elections Commission cannot hold a presidential election on 7 December as there are logistical difficulties, with the likelihood of a poll in January being more realistic. Of course it is entirely possible that President Sirisena will return from his visit to India and make a completely different statement on the status of the presidential polls. The only thing certain at this point is that there is never a dull moment in Sri Lankan politics.