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Thursday, 20 November 2014 00:54 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}
| Mahinda Rajapaksa | Ranil Wickremesinghe | Karu Jayasuriya | Chandrika Kumaratunga |
| Maduluwawe Sobitha Thero | Athuraliye Rathana Thero | Sarath Fonseka |
The Chief Justice installed following the unconstitutional sacking of Shirani Bandaranayake in January 2013 has played his part with aplomb. Chief Justice Mohan Peiris paved the way for President Rajapaksa to declare elections this month by issuing a still undisclosed opinion about the legitimacy of a third term for the incumbent on 10 November.
The opinion is to be tabled in Parliament in due course, but for the moment copies of the document, sent under confidential cover to President Rajapaksa, have been leaked and excerpts are available in sections of the media.
Peiris and five other judges of the Supreme Court argue in a ‘unanimous’ opinion that a popular incumbent must not be prevented from contesting a third time. The alleged leaked version of the opinion is coming in for quiet criticism in legal circles for its tenor and language, legal sources noted.
The dangerous consequences of the Shirani Bandaranayake sacking have come home to roost. Other sections of the 18th Amendment have ensured President Rajapaksa controls every other crucial arm of the state. The Rajapaksa administration has the Elections Commission, the police department and the public service in a vice-like grip that will prove highly advantageous in a bitterly fought election. In many ways, the regime has been prepping for this battle to the death for years now.
But the greatest despair still lies, even on eve of this most vital announcement, in the lack of a credible challenger.
In search of commonality
For months now Opposition groups have been trying to cement a common platform to challenge the Rajapaksa juggernaut at this election everyone knew was coming. Maduluwawe Sobitha Thero’s National Movement for Social Justice was able to gain significant ground over the past year, advocating hard for the abolition of the executive presidency.
The UNP, as the nucleus around which any Opposition alliance will coalesce, has see-sawed shamelessly on the issue. At times the UNP appears to coyly agree with the abstract concept of common candidacy. But at others it engages in a boisterous show of strength as the main base of Opposition support that must call the shots on the candidate. Despite the UNP’s stronger showing at the Uva provincial elections in September, it is the ‘Sobitha’ movement which has created the most amount of excitement in the Opposition and civil society circles and a great deal of disturbance in the Rajapaksa campaign.
The meeting between President Rajapaksa and Sobitha Thero engineered by DNA politician Tiran Alles exposed the regime’s concerns about the monk’s campaign. It also went some distance to expose Alles, who most recently engineered the reappointment of UNP MP Sajith Premadasa as the party’s deputy leader.
Premadasa has since been the most vocal opponent of the common Opposition platform and the staunchest backer of UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe’s candidacy at the January poll. Alles’ publications have recently become the most ardent advocate of a Ranil Wickremesinghe candidacy. They had vilified Wickremesinghe in the crudest fashion and denounced him for clinging to the leadership of the UNP for over a year, but now market him as the most viable Opposition option. Premadasa told BBC Sandeshaya earlier this week that he would support the candidature of Karu Jayasuriya or Chandrika Kumaratunga if his party made the decision to back either as a presidential candidate. Audio of the interview is freely available, yet Premadasa denied the report in one of Alles’ publications the next day. The dangerous Alles-Premadasa nexus and its machinations with regard to the Opposition’s fortunes at the election became too stark to ignore however only when news broke of the meeting brokered by the DNA MP between Sobitha Thero and the President.
Other envoys have also visited the Chief Incumbent of the Kotte Naga Viharaya, including President Rajapaksa’s campaign manager Basil Rajapaksa, sources said. As a main benefactor of the Naga Viharaya, Alles commands influence to arrange such meetings with the monk. The Economic Development Minister had been particularly curious about the individuals involved in Sobitha Thero’s campaign to abolish the presidency and the movement to forge a common Opposition.
Sobitha Thero’s woes
Matters came to a head when Sobitha Thero was suddenly admitted to hospital for medical treatment soon after these high level meetings. The monk has been admitted to the Malabe private medical college hospital with severe bronchitis and a back ailment, sources close to the monk disclosed.
His decision to be admitted to the Malabe hospital was motivated by the fact that his trusted physician is a full-time consultant at the institution, the sources explained. While it is unclear if the pressure brought to bear upon the monk by senior sections of the Government had any impact on his health condition, Sobitha Thero remains highly frustrated by the UNP’s ongoing personality clashes that he believes is derailing the common Opposition movement. Opposition groups are fathoms deep in negotiations this week, with an announcement on the candidate expected by the weekend or soon after.
Four names remain in play for the role of President Rajapaksa’s main Opposition challenger. Former President Chandrika Kumaratunga remains an option, as UNP Leadership Council Chairman Karu Jayasuriya, who many acknowledge would be an intelligent and credible choice. Ranil Wickremesinghe remains very much in the running, while a fourth name drawn from the Government’s own ranks is also being measured for suitability.
Maithripala Sirisena, the SLFP's own General Secretary was being vetted by opposition teams as a potential fourth option. The hope would be to use Sirisena to break a chunk of SLFP votes from the incumbent's tally and convince other disgruntled SLFP members in the Government to rally behind a 'true blue' instead of a Rajapaksa who has consistently sidelined SLFPers during his tenure.
Wickremesinghe is clearly the preference of the Rajapaksa regime, which believes it can denounce him as a traitor and capitalise on his string of defeats at elections to re-clinch the presidency with relative ease. Conversely, Sobitha Thero’s success at bringing Opposition forces together remains the regime’s worst nightmare. If Ranil Wickremesinghe emerges as the common Opposition candidate however, with the backing of the monk and other civil society groups, he could still pose a formidable challenge to the incumbent’s campaign.
Common candidacy advocates fear the UNP leader’s bona fides with regard to abolition less than they do the drop in morale and excitement should Wickremesinghe prove the last man standing. Theoretically, and based on the current predictions, Wickremesinghe should be able to garner no more or no less than any of the other contenders for Opposition candidate. He will certainly ensure minority votes are locked in for the Opposition even before the campaign kicks off officially. But with only four weeks of campaigning left for the Opposition, concerns are being raised about whether the single-issue campaign will have the time necessary to resurrect Ranil Wickremesinghe’s image with the electorate and portray him as a credible challenger to President Mahinda Rajapaksa.
A third player?
On the other hand, should the UNP decide to run alone, it may find its fortunes diminished by the likelihood of a third candidate in the ring, put forward by Sobitha Thero, the JHU and other social movements determined to bring about constitutional changes. The main Opposition party may also find itself in the throes of a crisis should it go it alone, having barely prevented Opposition stalwart Mangala Samaraweera from crossing over to the Government by vowing to revisit the common Opposition option. A third candidate would also create headaches for the Rajapaksa campaign which must also fear the prospect of a split vote between not two, but three major candidates that could deprive the President from claiming 50% of the votes and force the election into a second count.
Announcement of the snap election will raise this charged situation to fever pitch. Horse trading will begin in earnest, even as the Government mounts last-ditch attempts to retain disgruntled members from casting their lot with the Opposition.
Realistically, the odds still heavily favour the incumbent in the January poll. But the drama has only barely begun. History is about to be made in this election, with President Rajapaksa’s decision to throw his hat in the ring for the third time. Post-election, history will also be altered and re-written. Victories will be sweet and punishments cruel.
President Rajapaksa is gambling it all on this election, including his two remaining years in office. It is not a battle his regime is willing to lose. Opposition forces must take cognizance of this fact. This time, defeat could mean the end of many things.
Darker shadows
Lurking in the background of this riotous political atmosphere in the run-up to the January snap election are long dark shadows of change. The issues and personalities in play have turned the election to choose the next Sri Lankan President into a ‘poll of polls’ of sorts.
If the Opposition’s star is on the ascent, the January poll could well be the last presidential election under the terms of the 1978 Constitution that established the all powerful executive presidency. If his astrologers are proved correct on the other hand, and President Rajapaksa is re-elected to serve irrespective of victory margins, the country is poised to face more far-reaching changes. A third Rajapaksa term could alter the very nature of the Sri Lankan state; what is left of democratic institutions may be further eroded, an all powerful military establishment further entrenched and the last dregs of Opposition decimated.
If the Opposition wants the concept of democratic opposition to live on and thrive, it will have to begin to treat this battle with the seriousness it deserves.
There is little doubt that President Rajapaksa, if re-elected, will serve out the two remaining years of his second term which ends in 2016 before commencing his third six-year term. Voters therefore will face a crucial test on polling day in early January. As they weigh their options between changing and keeping the status quo, one question will persist. If the system is to continue and personalities remain unaltered, will they still recognise their country in the year 2022?
