Playing the numbers game

Politics can often boil down to a numbers game. The Sri Lankan Parliament has 225 seats and any party needs to get a simple majority or 113 seats to form a Government. But President Maithripala Sirisena sees beyond the numbers, warning detractors this week that anyone seeking to establish the magic 113 would also need his blessing to achieve the feat of establishing a Government. 

The warning may have been issued to members of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) loyal to him and those belonging to the Joint Opposition (JO) but parliamentarians of both the main parties should perhaps take heed. Speculation has been rife for months that SLFP members are attempting to push the President to dissolve its agreement with the United National Party (UNP) and form a Government by partnering the Joint Opposition. This would still be a stretch as the UNP still holds a larger number of seats in Parliament and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had repeatedly stated his support for the continuation of a Coalition Government. A decision on the agreement is due towards the end of the year and undoubtedly everyone on both sides of the divide as well as the public will be watching developments with a keen eye. 

Sirisena’s continued dedication to the coalition was the main take away from the tougher-than-usual speech delivered on Monday. But the necessity for such a statement also underscores the need for this Government to desperately end its policy stagnation and work to delivering on the expectations of the people. Last week the Government cleared a major hurdle by signing the Hambantota Port deal, despite protests by unions and Opposition members. However, it is clear that the Government cannot afford to sit on this one transaction but push forward with delayed reforms, strengthening institutions and legislative changes crucial to delivering growth. 

Rating agency Moody releasing an update on the Hambantota Port deal noted external debt maturities in 2019-2022 total $ 13.8 billion. The Government will have to keep these numbers in view when they make decisions to promote investment and implement measures that will affect vulnerable groups including those suffering from drought. Many other plans including divesting non-strategic State companies including hotels by listing them on the stock market, reforming State-Owned Enterprises, finding a partner for SriLankan Airlines and improving FDI are still awaited. If the Government can get at least a few of these off the ground in the remaining months of 2017 there could be an infusion of much-needed optimism. 

The private sector is awaiting the policy announcement by the Prime Minister to give clues on Government policy for the next three years. The public will be expecting more, namely the steps the Government will take on the information unearthed on the bond inquiry and what repercussions, if any, its top actors will face. Disappointing the public on this front will have political consequences the Government would have to contend with in the next election cycle. 

Economic numbers can add up to voter numbers. All these endless permutations can add up to the survival of the Government or the opposite.