Battle lines emerge

THERE are no permanent enemies in politics, so goes the saying, and that seems to be the case in Sri Lanka at the moment. With political alliances falling into place it is now time for discussions to focus on policies rather than politics.

Though either party is yet to officially release their manifestos, there is a clear difference between the old Rajapaksa campaign and the new one. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa has already engaged more with international media and seems set to have a more open campaign than was seen in the run-up to the presidential election.

He is also comfortable building bridges with the incumbent, insisting that the prime minister post would be compatible with the presidency and would bring together traditional loyalists of the Rajapaksa wing. The fact that he is voicing these thoughts despite the continued silence of President Sirisena shows the confidence of a return to power.

Yet there are points of concern. Rajapaksa has pledged to roll back what he terms as the “police state” established in the last six months and will also derail any corruption investigations. Glib promises “not to make mistakes of the past” do not hold water especially since they are juxtaposed with criticisms of the efforts made to promote reconciliation.

With the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) report set to be released in August and tabled during sessions in September, Rajapaksa is likely to lean on his tried and tested foreign policy measures, pushing Sri Lanka closer to China and also continuing loan-based growth. In such a climate previous promises made by the post-presidential election Government will fall apart and an impatient international community could take severe steps.

In contrast, the United National Party (UNP) would have a better shot at handling the UNHRC situation and promoting credible reconciliation, though it would not be an easy path and will likely be hampered by continued nationalistic rhetoric from the Rajapaksa camp. However, the UNP’s problems are more immediate as they must now infuse more effort into an election campaign they felt was very much in the bag just days ago.

UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has to now position the UNP in a stronger space and build momentum in a short period of time but will find it harder given the inconsistencies displayed during the last six months. They have now been “tried” by the public with mixed results and the disappointment experienced by Rajapaksa last year seems to have waned.

Voters, as much as they want change, are often tired easily by the challenges change brings and the dragging corruption investigations, particularly against the Rajapaksa’s themselves. Though they have been in power such a short time, the UNP has to deal with a degree of incumbency fatigue after a surprisingly short honeymoon period.

In such an environment both parties have to prepare election manifestos with a careful eye over both what has and hasn’t been done. The Rajapaksa segment will find it tough to convince minorities and good governance enthusiasts of their credentials while the UNP will have to lobby against disappointment over corruption and economic and social points during their short stint in power. The latter also has to leverage on its advantage in attracting minority parties and keep all the colours of the January ‘rainbow’ coalition together.